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Thursday, April 22, 2010

Sterling Under Pressure Despite Upbeat Deficit Data


The pound sterling is under some pressure on Thursday despite a smaller than expected increase in the budget deficit.

Earlier this morning, the Office for National Statistics reported that the UK’s public finances rose to +£25.8 billion in March, short of calls for an increase to +£31.3 billion from the prior month’s revised +£8.0 billion.

The results translate into a £152.8 billion deficit, the largest since World War II.

Public sector net borrowing advanced to +£23.5 billion in March from a revised +£9.7 billion, just short of calls for a +£24.0 billion level.

Simultaneously, the ONS also reported that annual retail sales excluding fuel were in line in March, rising 4.0% compared to the revised 5.0% increase the month prior. Headline sales advanced 2.2%, just short of calls for a 2.3% gain and prior 3.2% increase.

The data failed to have much of an impact on FX, which moved instead on a smaller than expected budget deficit reported simultaneously.

On the news, GBP/USD popped up 29 pips, but continued to head south, last trading lower by 19 pips at 1.5392 after trading in a range between 1.5376 to 1.5473 today.

Short term resistance lies at 1.5507, 1.5524, and the nothing until 1.5575. Support is found at 1.5290, 1.5192, 1.5130 and 1.4799.

The euro’s demise on Thursday appears to be weighing on the currency.

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